Goldman Sachs: Potential Selling Pressure of $45 Billion in US Stocks Over the Next Month

After last week's sharp decline in technology stocks, the concentrated holding risks in the US stock market may not have been fully eliminated. Recent data shows that despite significant reductions in positions by retail investors and some hedge funds, global macro funds have largely maintained their existing equity exposure, becoming the next potential market risk of concern for institutions.

Data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage business indicates that while the S&P 500 index recorded its worst weekly performance since 2025, global macro hedge funds did not significantly reduce their stock holdings. These funds primarily express macroeconomic and market directional judgments through index futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and swap contracts. Due to their trading often involving large-scale index exposures, concentrated position adjustments could exacerbate volatility in major indices if market sentiment further deteriorates.

Goldman Sachs data shows that last week, hedge funds' net selling of individual stocks reached the highest level in four months, with technology stocks being the most concentrated net selling sector in both global and US markets. Meanwhile, macro products, including index and ETFs, recorded net buying.

In addition to global macro funds, systematic trading strategies may also become an important source of market volatility. Models tracked by Goldman Sachs indicate that approximately 60% of the global stock market has shown negative trading signals. According to related models, S&P 500 index futures may face a potential selling scale of about $28 billion in the coming week, with potential selling pressure reaching $45 billion over the next month. The position structure in the options market also increases potential risks.

SpotGamma data shows that there is a broad negative gamma exposure in the S&P 500 index within the range of 7000 to 7550 points. In this market environment, options traders may further sell stocks during market declines to hedge position risks and increase buying during rises, thereby amplifying short-term price volatility.

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