VanEck Q1 Market Outlook: Long-Term Bullish on Cryptocurrency, Strong Gold Demand

Original Title: VanEck Q1 2026 Outlook: Risk On

Original Source: VanEck

Original Translation: Felix, PANews

Entering 2026, clearer fiscal and monetary signals support a more positive risk appetite, with areas such as artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrency all offering more attractive investment opportunities.

Key Points:

· The significant pullback in AI-related stocks at the end of 2025 has reset valuations, making investment opportunities in AI and related themes more attractive.

· Gold continues to resurge as a global monetary asset, with the pullback providing a better entry point.

· Following a challenging 2025, Business Development Companies (BDCs) currently offer more attractive yields and valuations.

· India remains a high-growth potential investment market, and cryptocurrency is bullish in the long term, but short-term price signals are complex.

As we step into 2026, the market finds itself in a rare environment: clarity. While selectivity remains crucial, this clarity around fiscal policy, monetary policy direction, and key investment themes supports a more positive risk-on strategy.

Following a sharp pullback in some AI-related stocks at the end of last year, AI trades are now more attractive compared to the "exhilarating" highs of October. It is worth noting that this pullback occurred while the potential demand for computing, tokens, and productivity enhancements remains strong.

Related themes, such as nuclear power tied to AI-driven electricity demand, have also seen significant price adjustments. This adjustment has improved the risk-return profile for investors with a medium- to long-term view.

Reduced Likelihood of Future Fiscal and Monetary Policy Surprises

One of the most significant developments for the market is the gradual improvement in the U.S. fiscal situation. While the deficit remains elevated, its proportion of GDP has declined from the historical highs during the pandemic. This fiscal stability helps anchor long-term rates and reduce tail risks.

Regarding rates, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the current rate levels as "normal," which carries significant meaning. The market should not expect aggressive or destabilizing short-term rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the outlook points towards policy stability, moderate adjustments, and fewer shocks. This is also one of the reasons for a clearer market outlook.

Nuclear Energy Stocks See Pullback in Q4:

Source: Bloomberg Data as of December 31, 2025

Business Development Companies Back in Focus

Business Development Companies (BDCs) had a challenging year in 2025, but this pullback has presented an opportunity. With yields still attractive and credit concerns largely digested by the market, BDCs are now more appealing than they were a year ago.

Their underlying management companies (such as Ares) are also seeing a similar trend, with current valuations more reasonable relative to their long-term earnings power and historical performance.

Gold as a Global Monetary Asset

Driven by central bank demand across nations and the increasing movement away from USD dominance in the global economy, gold continues its resurgence as a premier global currency. While the gold price may appear overbought from a technical standpoint, VanEck sees this pullback as a buying opportunity, given its ongoing structural advantages.

Gold price holds above support levels amid strong demand:

Source: Bloomberg Data as of December 31, 2025

India and the Investment Opportunity in Cryptocurrency

Outside of the U.S. market, India remains a highly promising long-term investment arena, fueled by structural reforms and sustained growth momentum.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle was disrupted in 2025, making short-term signals more complex. This deviation has supported a more cautious short-term outlook for the next 3 to 6 months. However, not all within VanEck share this view, as Matthew Sigel and David Schassler hold a more optimistic view of the recent cycle.

Original Article Link