Attacks on Logistics May Increase Inflation in Ukraine by 0.4-0.6 Percentage Points

New attacks on Ukraine's logistics infrastructure could lead to an increase in annual inflation by 0.4-0.6 percentage points by the end of 2026. The main impact is expected in the autumn, said Deputy Head of the NBU Vladimir Lepushinsky. The attacks and damage to facilities were not accounted for in the updated NBU forecast, which was revised at the end of July. The restructuring of logistics and rising costs may contribute to inflation; however, a sharp price spike is not expected. Lepushinsky noted that the impact of additional costs will be gradual, and competition along with weak consumer demand will partially restrain price growth. Damage to warehouses will not necessarily lead to a full transfer of costs to the end consumer, as logistics account for about 8% of the consumer price. At the end of July, the NBU raised its inflation forecast: expectations for 2026 increased from 9.4% to 10%, and for 2027 from 6.5% to 6.9%. In July, consumer inflation was 7.7% year-on-year, and in August, price growth continued. Lepushinsky noted that the inflation dynamics correspond to the NBU's expectations, although actual figures turned out to be higher than predicted. Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky stated that there is no expected food shortage in Ukraine.

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