US Treasury Volatility Rises to March High, BTC and US Stocks Remain Calm

The volatility in the US Treasury market has significantly increased recently, with the MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in US Treasuries, rising from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, marking the highest level since March. The index briefly reached 199. In contrast, the implied volatility index for Bitcoin (BVIV) is currently around 37, close to its year-to-date low of 35; the Cboe VIX for the S&P 500 is also near its year-to-date low of 14. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond touched 5.2% on Thursday before retreating to 5.163%. Data shows that the correlation coefficient between VIX and MOVE over the past 20 trading days has dropped to -0.06, marking the first negative correlation since April 2024; the correlation coefficient between BVIV and MOVE is -0.37, which is relatively low compared to recent years. An increase in US Treasury volatility typically indicates a tightening financial environment, but BTC and US stocks have yet to reflect the same level of volatility risk as the bond market.

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