Analysts Turn Bullish on Market Predictions, Similar to Late 2022 = CryptoQuant

Key Points of This Article

• Analysts' predictions for the top 5 cryptocurrencies have turned bullish
• The shift occurred earlier than in the previous cycle

Consensus on Bitcoin and Four Other Cryptocurrencies

On the 14th, cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant released its weekly market report. The consensus among analysts regarding Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), BNB Coin, XRP, and Solana (SOL) has shifted from bearish to bullish since July. They noted that this shift is similar to the early movements of the bullish market from late 2022 to early 2023, but this time the transition is more rapid and widespread.

The consensus on Bitcoin turned bullish on July 27, and about three weeks later, the price rose to $80,200. The 30-day moving consensus index hit a low of -18.3 on July 2, then surpassed zero on July 27 when the Bitcoin price was $63,800, and is currently at +49.2.

Source: CryptoQuant{#caption-attachment-743004}

The percentage of analysts who judged the market as bullish increased from 37% on July 1 to 84% (137 out of 164) at the time of the report's release. CryptoQuant also stated that this change is not merely due to a sample bias.

Among the 85 analysts who indicated their judgment on Bitcoin at both July 1 and the present, the bullish percentage rose from 40% at that time to 89% now. Specifically, 47 analysts shifted from bearish to bullish, while 5 moved from bullish to bearish. Overall, there has been a shift towards a bullish trend within the same group.

The current bullish rate among analysts tracked by CryptoQuant since before July is 87%, while it is 72% among the 29 newly added analysts.

In comparison to the previous cycle, Bitcoin's index rose by 36 points over 103 days from 2022 to 2023, with a price increase of +65%. This time, the index rose by about 67 points over the same 103 days, while the price increase rate from the bottom on July 2 was about 33%. The report points out that the analysts' change in outlook is leading the price more than in the previous cycle.

This analysis involved 974 analysts. There were 335 from X accounts, 206 contributors from CryptoQuant, and 433 contributors from other platforms like Substack.

Posts were analyzed by a large language model (LLM) and classified from bullish to bearish. Those that changed direction were manually verified, and a 30-day time decay was applied to calculate individual stances. Furthermore, a weighted average was calculated using accuracy scores, and the 30-day moving average was used as the index.

Altcoin Consensus Index

The consensus index for Ethereum has risen from +0.1 on July 1 to +58.3 at present. Among 72 analysts, the bullish percentage increased from 56% (50 out of 89) on July 1 to 88% (72 out of 72) now. Solana's consensus index rose from +29.6 to +72.0, with 91% of 34 analysts currently bullish.

In the previous cycle, Ethereum's index surpassed zero after December 23, 2022, while Solana did so after March 1, 2023, which was one month (for Ethereum) and four months (for Solana) after the cycle's bottom, respectively.

For XRP and BNB, the number of analysts is small, ranging from 9 to 19, making the figures indicative rather than precise. XRP's index fell to -8.0 on August 20 when the price hit a low of $0.99, then returned to positive territory on September 3. It is currently at +36.7, with 15 out of 19 respondents bullish.

BNB hit a low of -10.2 on July 22 and is currently at +52.0, with 8 out of 9 respondents expressing a bullish outlook. It is important to note that the indices presented by CryptoQuant aggregate analysts' views and do not guarantee prices.

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