Japan's LDP Lawmakers' Federation Begins Review of Prediction Markets

The lawmakers' federation within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to begin a review of prediction markets. The LDP's Digital Advanced Finance Lawmakers' Federation has decided to make prediction markets a key discussion topic. Prediction markets are platforms where participants bet on the likelihood of specific events occurring, with trading targets including Bitcoin prices, results of U.S. midterm elections, and outcomes of sports games. Notable examples of prediction market platforms include Kalshi and Polymarket in the U.S., where monthly trading volumes reach tens of billions of dollars, and the market size is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. However, there are ethical and regulatory controversies surrounding prediction markets. The Attorney General of New York has filed a lawsuit claiming that the prediction market services of Coinbase and Gemini constitute illegal gambling. Discussions on prediction markets have also taken place in Japan, with lawmaker Shuichi Harada describing them as a new information market. Toshitake Inoue, head of the Financial Services Agency's Planning and Market Division, stated that there are currently no laws regulating prediction markets in Japan. Attention is drawn to the possibility of discussions on the introduction of prediction markets in Japan gaining momentum.

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