Bitcoin: Glassnode warns of liquidity shortage and capital flight

The bitcoin market is going through a delicate phase, marked by a decrease in liquidity and a decline in institutional demand. In its report dated November 11, 2026, Glassnode describes an environment where capital is gradually leaving the market, despite some signs of accumulation. Investors are facing increasing pressure, while derivative markets show more defensive strategies. Between fund outflows, options positions, and cautious forecasts, the prospects for a sustainable recovery remain difficult to establish.

In brief

• Glassnode notes a contraction of $14.2 billion in the supply of stablecoins over 30 days.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in net outflows over 20 sessions.
• Only 35% of bitcoins held in the short term are currently in profit.
• Options show an open interest of $33 billion, while defensive positions are increasing.
• On Polymarket, the chances of reaching $100,000 in November do not exceed 1%.

Glassnode observes a contraction of liquidity in the bitcoin market

In its report titled << Running on Empty >>, published on Wednesday, November 11, on X, Glassnode describes a weakened market structure. Several factors are now limiting the recovery of bitcoin. The decrease in available liquidity, the decline in U.S. demand, and the losses of recent investors weigh on the outlook. This combination reduces the resources likely to sustainably support the price of BTC.

Glassnode particularly highlights that the price has fallen below the breakeven point for short-term holders, set at $75,600. A large portion of recent buyers therefore holds losing positions. Meanwhile, the bitcoin market continues to underperform compared to stocks, underscoring its lack of dynamism. The firm also observes a decrease in capital likely to support a new upward movement.

Data from defiLlama on stablecoins reinforces this diagnosis. Their total supply has decreased by $14.2 billion in just 30 days, marking its fastest decline since June 2022. At the same time, U.S. spot ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in net outflows over twenty sessions. The BTC premium displayed on Coinbase also remains negative. It has reached its largest discount since February, according to Glassnode's observations.

Short-term holders face increasing pressure

The deterioration of market conditions particularly affects investors who bought in recent months. According to Glassnode, only 35% of bitcoins held in the short term are currently in profit. This proportion contrasts with that observed at the peak in September, when almost all of these positions showed gains. The reversal thus places a significant portion of recent buyers facing latent losses.

The firm also identifies a significant concentration of bitcoin positions acquired at levels above current prices. This excess supply extends up to $83,600 and could represent an obstacle during a potential rebound. These potential sales may then limit price progression. The market must absorb this pressure before any recovery.

The current situation does present some supportive elements. Glassnode notes that the recent decline has eliminated a significant portion of leveraged long positions near current price levels. Additionally, buy orders now exceed sell orders in the order book. Some participants are taking advantage of the lower prices. However, this is not enough to confirm a sustainable return of demand.

Liquidity Levels Highlight Several Sensitive Zones for Bitcoin

Analyzing the order book allows for a better understanding of the levels currently attracting the attention of traders. Glassnode identifies significant buy orders between $68,000 and $72,500. This zone could attract some demand if the BTC price continues to decline. However, the presence of pending orders does not guarantee their execution. Two major categories of Bitcoin wallets are resuming their accumulation, according to Glassnode.

Lower down, the data reveals a concentration of liquidations between $59,500 and $62,600. This zone could become significant if a new wave of sales triggers additional liquidations. Conversely, the liquidity available above current prices remains relatively low up to $84,000. Short positions, on the other hand, show a concentration of liquidations around $87,500.

Glassnode also identifies three important benchmarks for assessing the Bitcoin market. The first corresponds to the acquisition cost of short-term holders, set at $75,600. The second is at $77,500 and represents the market's real average. Finally, the closing price on election day reaches $77,800. These three levels serve as references for tracking any potential trend changes.

Options Traders Strengthen Their Protections Despite Bullish Interest

Data from Coinglass provides additional insight into the positioning of professional Bitcoin investors. Open interest in options reaches 439,966 BTC, with an approximate value of $33 billion. Call options account for 55.72% of this total, compared to 44.28% for put options. The put/call ratio thus stands at 0.79. This distribution indicates that bullish exposure retains a slight advantage across all open contracts.

Deribit holds several of the main ongoing positions. Its November call option with a strike price of $81,000 shows an open interest of 8,305.9 BTC. The December 25 call option at $80,000 follows with 8,113.9 BTC. The $100,000 contract also represents a significant position, with 6,612.7 BTC.

However, recent Bitcoin volumes provide a more defensive signal. Over the last 24 hours, options trading reached 45,210 BTC. Put options accounted for 50.32% of this volume, compared to 49.68% for call options. Activity mainly concentrated on the expirations of November 12 and 13, with strike prices between $72,000 and $75,500. Deribit put contracts at $72,000 and $73,000 notably recorded 730.3 and 715.8 BTC.

Derivatives Activity Declines After Several Periods of Strong Growth

Some contracts have nevertheless recorded significant volumes despite this more cautious orientation. The Deribit call option at $100,000, expiring on November 27, totaled 868.3 BTC. A put option at $50,000, expiring on December 25, also reached 673.8 BTC. These trades show that investors continue to position themselves on different scenarios, combining the search for opportunities with protection against unfavorable movements.

Transaction volumes on Deribit also confirm this decline in activity. In September, they reached around $11.5 billion. During the observed decline this month, they returned to around $5 billion. This difference indicates a significant decrease in trading on bitcoin derivatives. It accompanies the general slowdown observed in bitcoin, although the available data does not allow for a direct relationship to be established between these two developments.

Options contracts thus maintain a relatively balanced distribution between bullish and bearish positions. However, recent volumes give more room to protection strategies. The near-term expirations and strike prices around current levels concentrate a significant portion of the trades. Investors seem to be closely monitoring upcoming current movements. This caution contrasts with the high price targets still present in some longer-dated contracts.

Prediction Markets Show Cautious Outlook for End of 2026

Prediction markets provide a third reading of the bitcoin situation. On Polymarket, the market dedicated to possible prices in November attracted $5.17 million. It covers 28 different targets and assigns a 91% probability to a rise above $75,000. This probability drops to 62% for $77,500 and 39% for $80,000. Estimates thus become progressively less favorable as targets increase. Polymarket and Kalshi odds on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, at 1:40 PM EST. Note: The image only covers the end of November.

Forecasts regarding lower thresholds also show some caution. Participants assign a 73% probability to a passage through $72,500. This estimate reaches 50% for $70,000 and 18% for $65,000. In contrast, the chances of reaching $100,000 during November do not exceed 1%. These figures reflect participants' expectations without constituting a guarantee on upcoming movements.

The Polymarket market dedicated to targets before 2027 presents similar results. It totals $84.26 million in volume. The probabilities reach 61% for $70,000, 34% for $65,000, and 20% for $60,000. On the upside, participants assign 18% to $90,000 and 6% to $100,000. The target of $250,000 remains below 1%.

Data from Glassnode, activity in options, and predictions from prediction markets describe a market under pressure, but not an inevitable collapse. ETF outflows and the contraction of stablecoins signal a withdrawal of available capital. However, some intermediate wallets are resuming their purchases, and buy orders are exceeding sell orders in the studied order book. In the coming weeks, the evolution of flows, the behavior of recent holders, and reactions around technical thresholds will be decisive. A recovery of Bitcoin will depend on the return of demand capable of absorbing potential sales.