Bitcoin and Fed: U.S. Hiring Falls to Lowest Level Since 2011

Pumpkins fill the shelves and no one to sell them. Every autumn, American retailers hire tens of thousands ahead of Halloween to handle the holiday rush. This year, the stocks are there, but the hiring contracts are not following suit.

American employers announced only 90,787 hires in September. No September has performed worse since 2011. This figure comes two weeks after the Fed's first rate hike since 2023. Bitcoin is living in sync with the cost of money, and this signal is doubly important for it ahead of the meeting on October 28. Key points of this article:

• U.S. hiring in September reached its lowest level since 2011, with only 90,787 positions announced.
• Major retailers like Amazon, Target, and Kohl's have yet to reveal their hiring intentions for the holiday season, raising concerns about the job market.

September Hiring at Lowest Since 2011

The count comes from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks monthly announcements of layoffs and hiring intentions from U.S. companies. Its report published on October 1 leaves little room for doubt. The 90,787 planned hires in September represent a 23% decline year-on-year (117,313 in September 2025) and fall to an unprecedented level for the period since 2011.

Retail accounts for almost the entire structure, with 65,150 hiring intentions for the month. In the first nine months of the year, the sector totals 66,557. In other words, retail had hardly hired anything before September. Retail has concentrated most of the announced hires in the U.S. since January. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, based on Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Looking closer, the picture darkens further. Only two retailers have officially launched their seasonal campaigns: Spirit Halloween, with a historic record of 52,000 positions, and Michaels, with over 10,000. This makes 62,000 seasonal hires, compared to 100,800 announced in September 2025. The heavyweights remain silent. Amazon has hired 250,000 seasonal workers each of the last three years and usually reveals its target by mid-October. Target (around 100,000 positions) and Kohl's (around 90,000) had communicated nothing by September 23, according to Challenger.

<< Companies are in a wait-and-see period >>, summarizes Andy Challenger, the firm's commercial director. He does not see the << influx of hiring intentions that accompanies the holiday season >>, a sign of a << very cautious approach >>.

Why American Employers Are Slowing Down

Andy Challenger lists the constraints: high energy costs, an uncertain war in Iran, rising rates that increase hiring costs, and the prospect of soaring healthcare expenses. A lot of headwinds for a single quarter.

The movement is not new. In the fourth quarter of 2025, American retailers added only 461,500 jobs, 15% fewer than a year earlier and the weakest seasonal gain since 2008. For 2026, Challenger estimates around 450,000 positions. Automation is partly to blame. Retailers now prefer to rely on automation, their existing employees, and pools of on-demand workers before signing new contracts.

The American labor market is freezing more than collapsing. Layoff announcements fell to 43,281 in September, their lowest level for that month since 2022. However, artificial intelligence remains the primary reason for job cuts since January, with 120,136 departures, accounting for 21% of the total. Companies are retaining their staff and closing the door to newcomers.

Consumers, on the other hand, have not yet thrown in the towel. Retail sales increased by 1.2% in August, and Andy Challenger describes it as "under pressure, but still showing up."

US Employment and Fed: Bitcoin Between Two Fires

Official figures confirmed the trend on October 2. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American economy created only 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The revisions sting even more. July shifted into negative territory (-10,000 jobs) and August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, resulting in 60,000 jobs erased over two months.

This poses a real headache for the Fed. The central bank raised its rates by 25 basis points on September 16, to 3.75-4%, in the face of underlying inflation that it still projects at 3.4% for 2026 according to the PCE index, its benchmark measure. The vast majority of committee members anticipate at least one more hike by the end of the year. After the employment report, traders saw little chance of a new tightening at the October 28 meeting, CNBC reported on October 2.

For Bitcoin, which is trading around $83,500 on October 12, the equation has two sides. A slowing job market reduces the threat of a new rate hike, which usually relieves risky assets. However, a consumer who drops out for good would resemble the beginning of a recession, and in this scenario, investors often sell off what moves the most first.

The next signals are coming quickly. Amazon typically reveals its seasonal hiring goals in mid-October. The Fed will meet on October 28 in the face of a labor market that has already seen the 162,000 job creations for August, announced on September 4, revised down to 133,000.

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