US September CPI Rises 0.6% Month-on-Month, Highest Increase in 5 Months

On October 14, the market expects the overall CPI in the US for September to rise by 0.6% month-on-month, up from 0.4% in August, marking the largest increase in five months; the year-on-year increase is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%. Under the influence of the Middle East situation and oil prices, rising energy prices may become a major driver of accelerating inflation. For core CPI, the market expects a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with the month-on-month increase possibly slowing compared to the previous value. Goldman Sachs expects energy prices to rise by about 5% month-on-month in September, while housing inflation continues to cool. The divergence between overall and core inflation trends may increase the difficulty of policy judgment for the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve officials still have differing views on the next steps. Cleveland Fed President Mester believes inflationary pressures are spreading to more areas and is open to the possibility of a rate hike at the end of October; Governor Waller stated that there is no need to raise rates at two consecutive meetings. The market will focus on whether this data will change the assessment of the interest rate path for October and December. The US September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30, and the September PPI will be released on Thursday. Fed Chair Powell is expected to speak on Friday. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen expectations for further tightening of policy; if core inflation slows, it may support the Fed's decision to pause rate hikes.

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