Trump Weighs Limited Military Strike on Iran, Attack Odds Reach 60% by End of March

BlockBeats News, February 20th, according to The Wall Street Journal, sources revealed that Trump is considering a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to force it to agree to a nuclear deal. This strike plan, if authorized, could be carried out within days and would target a small number of military or government facilities. If Iran continues to refuse to comply with Trump's demand to cease its uranium enrichment activities, the U.S. would launch a large-scale strike against the country's regime facilities — ultimately possibly aimed at overthrowing the Tehran regime.

After weeks of deliberation, it is still unclear how seriously Trump is considering this plan, but senior aides have raised it with him multiple times. U.S. officials say recent discussions have focused more on a larger-scale strike, but Trump has not decided to authorize any level of attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn that such attacks would provoke Iran's retaliation, potentially dragging the U.S. into a broader Middle East war and endangering regional allies.

In addition, according to market reports, Iran stated in a letter to the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members that "if attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of hostile forces in the region would be legitimate targets within Iran's defensive response framework." Trump's comments suggest "a real risk of military aggression." Iran is not seeking escalation or war and will not initiate a war.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran by the end of February has risen to 26%, by March 15th to 52%, and by the end of March to 60%.