Trader Eugene: I bet that the market will break out this week, and I have gone long on ETH again. ETH is the clearest bet at the moment

By: odaily.com|2025/07/07 12:26:30

Odaily News Trader Eugene posted in his community: “I am betting that the market will break out this week, and the main target I chose after careful consideration is ETH. Although I vowed not to touch it again in late 2024 and early 2025, I now realize that ETH’s position structure and market tailwinds have changed significantly.
The main logic is summarized as follows:
1. Extremely light structural positions: In April 2025, ETH suffered a heavy market blow, falling from $4,000 to $1,300, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate also hit a multi-year low of 0.018. The plunge was accompanied by a full-scale capitulation sell-off by traders and early whales. Since then, ETH has been traded in a significantly different way than in the past two years. Nowadays, almost no one except developers regards ETH as a core position, and most traders even refuse to touch it. Because of this, from the structural perspective of the high time frame (HTF), the current lightness of ETHs position is almost the lowest in three years.
2. ETH will become the stablecoin and infrastructure main chain that institutions and traditional finance bet on: Although this statement has been mentioned frequently recently, I was skeptical at first, but if we look objectively at the recent regulatory progress actively promoted by the United States, it is not difficult to speculate that institutions will sooner or later look for new configuration directions outside of BTC. ETH currently hosts more than 90% of stablecoins, and this dominance is likely to continue. Considering the higher risks faced by other L1s, there is almost no commercial reason to change the track. In addition, traditional financial representatives such as Tom Lee have also begun to express their recognition of ETH, and the US Stablecoin Act is being passed. ETH is gradually gaining support from the perspective of legal and compliant institutions.
3. ETH price has a lot of room for catch-up: Although this point itself may not be decisive, once the market starts to gain momentum, the lag of ETH price compared to BTC can easily become a point of communication. Buyers in traditional finance often have information lags, which means that the narrative of its not too late to buy ETH now may become popular. If ETH returns to its historical high (about 85% increase), ETH/BTC will only return to the level of 0.044 in September 2024. Even if ETH/BTC does not rise, as long as BTC breaks through $110,000, the bull market is likely to restart, and during this period, ETH usually does not lag behind. ETHs usual weak phase often occurs when BTC is sideways or falling.
I have given it a lot of thought and firmly believe that ETH is a clear bet from a medium-term structural perspective, and I have positioned myself accordingly.”

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