The Strongest Whale in the World Cup Prediction Market? Trading 380 Times Daily, Raking in $10.32 Million

Original Title: "Raking in $10.32 Million, Polymarket Whale's World Cup Money-Making Strategy"
Original Author: Ma He, Foresight News

On the World Cup stage, as teams fiercely compete for the coveted trophy, a hidden whale is quietly making a fortune in the prediction market.

An account on Polymarket, nicknamed swisstony, has a total historical profit of $18.62 million, with a staggering profit of $10.33 million in the last month alone. This account was registered in July 2025, which is not long ago, but due to its impressive profits, its homepage views have surged to 922,200.

As of July 13, this account has made a total of 139,617 predictions, with a current position value of approximately $606,100. Notably, its current holdings are almost entirely concentrated on the July 14, 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal between France and Spain. This includes a bet on France losing the match, with approximately $160,000 wagered. Additionally, it has placed numerous bets on specific score details, primarily betting NO to achieve a 5%-10% profit.

This address maintains a win rate of 52.9%, with total trading positions exceeding 245,000, and trading volume reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. These figures place it in the top tier of the Polymarket ecosystem. Public research shows that most retail addresses incur long-term losses, while a few high-frequency, systematic accounts achieve significant positive returns through scaled execution. Although swisstony's win rate is not extremely high, its combination of high trading frequency and position management amplifies its positive expected value (EV) advantage.

Since the account was created about a year ago, it has completed 139,617 prediction operations. On average, this translates to approximately 380 trades per day, or 16 trades per hour, operating 24/7 without rest. It is highly likely that this is driven by an API-powered high-frequency trading bot.

Its profile describes it as a "trash panda." In North American culture, raccoons are survival masters known for rummaging through trash cans. This signature aptly summarizes its core strategy: making money from the vast data garbage and tiny price discrepancies on Polymarket, ultimately building a multi-million dollar empire.

Over 17 Profits Exceeding $1 Million

Looking at the profits of this address, what stands out is that it has achieved 17 profits exceeding $1 million, with the largest being a bet on the outcome of a match on June 25 involving Germany. The whale bet NO, earning $2,221,241, with a profit of 111.67%.

The ROI shown in this screenshot is generally very high, with significant advantages in buying prices. The investment scale is substantial, often ranging from $400,000 to $1 million per transaction.

This whale prefers to place numerous NO bets (not winning) against teams that are overvalued by the market: Germany, Paraguay (appearing multiple times), England, and Japan. The buying prices are mostly between 35.8¢ and 53.7¢, while the market at that time gave these strong teams an implied win rate of around 46%-64%, but the actual outcome was that they lost or did not win. This represents a typical contrarian strategy.

100 Times Return

In the prediction market, when the market believes that something is impossible and it ultimately happens, the profit returns can be extraordinarily exaggerated. This whale is not only skilled at making big bets but also excels at making small bets.

Taking the match in the image as an example, the buying prices are extremely low: 0.2¢ to 1.2¢ (with an implied market probability of only 0.2%-1.2%), and the invested funds are mostly only a few thousand dollars, yet each bet contributes profits exceeding $100,000.

These events, which were originally considered almost impossible by the market, actually occurred, allowing the account to achieve high returns at a minimal cost.

Placing small funds on extremely low-probability events is akin to a "lottery-style" but systematic execution. Once successful, it can contribute profits of $100,000+ at a very low cost, which is a great supplement to overall profitability. Although such high-multiple trades carry low capital risk per transaction, they also have a very low win rate. Most similar bets will result in losses.

Even though most of these bets will lose (because the probabilities are indeed very low), just hitting a few occasionally can significantly boost total profits without dragging down too much principal.

Overall, this account is highly likely to have an automated system that covers a large number of obscure, low-liquidity markets, where severe mispricing is more likely to occur, and then executes a dual-track strategy in parallel to profit.

Large funds bet against popular strong teams, while small funds bet on extreme underdogs. The combination of both ensures stable large profits while enhancing overall return rates through high-multiple trades.

Original Link