Société Générale: Gold Bull Market Enters New Phase with Increased Investment

On September 9, Société Générale stated that the gold bull market of 2026 is transitioning from a speculation-driven momentum to a new phase characterized by a resonance of physical, futures, and options demand. There are signs of different types of capital synchronously entering the gold market. According to Société Générale, net inflows into gold ETFs reached 201 tons in August, marking the third-largest monthly record in history, following February 2009 and March 2020. Meanwhile, the nominal exposure of asset management institutions to net long positions in gold futures has risen to the second-highest level on record, only behind the level seen in January this year when gold prices surpassed $5,400 per ounce. The options market is also signaling bullish trends, as investors hedge short-term risks through put options while establishing longer-term call option exposures, indicating a market optimism regarding gold's medium to long-term outlook. Société Générale believes that central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and concerns over sovereign debt are raising the bottom price of gold and weakening the suppressive effect of high real interest rates on gold. As gold volatility decreases, its appeal to long-term reserve managers increases. Société Générale maintains a "strategically bullish" stance on gold, believing that expectations for further interest rate hikes have largely been reflected in prices, and the downside risk for gold is gradually narrowing. They assert that persistent inflationary pressures, U.S. tariffs, AI and infrastructure investments, and high fiscal deficits may continue to support gold prices.

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