Block's 40% Workforce Reduction Due to 'AI Cost Reduction,' Anthropic Denies US Department of Defense Request, What Are Global Cryptocurrency Communities Talking About Today?
Publication Date: February 26, 2025
Author: BlockBeats Editorial Team
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen intense discussions on multiple fronts. Mainstream topics have focused on the controversy surrounding AI-induced mass layoffs, whether the Ethereum roadmap can truly materialize, the structural risks of Wall Street market-making institutions, and the political boundaries between cutting-edge AI companies and national security. In terms of ecosystem development, Ethereum is advancing L2 interoperability and cross-chain infrastructure layout, Solana is accelerating its protocol coordination, security efforts, and the implementation of AI development tools, Perp DEX is engaging in a new round of competition around incentives and governance mechanisms, and the prediction market is rapidly upgrading towards real-time news and a verification layer.
I. Mainstream Topics
1. Block Layoffs 40%: Is AI Truly Driving This or Is the Layoff Narrative a "Shield"?
Jack Dorsey posted an internal memo on X, announcing that Block was cutting over 4,000 employees in a single day (about 40% of its 10,000+ workforce), stating clearly that this move aimed to achieve a smaller scale and more efficient organizational structure through AI tools.
Controversy ensued: Is AI really mature enough to replace 40% of positions in a short period, or is the company using the AI narrative to mask deeper operational or capital pressures? Has there ever been a precedent in history where a technology born in December led to such large-scale layoffs in February?
Avi Felman and others argue that when Elon cut 80% of Twitter's workforce years ago, AI was far from mature, and now AI is just a more "reasonable" rationale, but the essence remains organizational slimming down; draecomino and James Wang point out that there has never been a case in history where a technology emerged and led to a 40% layoff within two months, indicating that this cannot be the real impact of AI; protolambda emphasizes that decision-making costs in large corporations are already high, and even with AI, an increase in workforce size does not necessarily equate to higher productivity. The real core contradiction lies in whether the speed of AI productivity enhancement has severely mismatched with the traditional enterprise's decision-making pace and organizational adjustment capabilities.
2. EF Protocol Strawmap: Is this the Practical Path to ETH 3.0 or a Blueprint Stuck at the Visionary Level?
Justin Drake announced the launch of strawmap.org, serving as the "strawman-style" roadmap for the EF Protocol, outlining multiple hard fork upgrades through 2029, aiming to encompass advancements such as high-speed L1, gigagas-level L1, and teragas-level L2.
Debate surrounding this roadmap has focused on whether it provides a clear and executable path, and whether AI truly empowers researchers with "superpowers," or if the EF's governance structure and execution efficiency remain bottlenecks.
dcfgod believes that the architecture of ETH 3.0 is already clear, namely the layered progression of fast L1, gigagas L1, and teragas L2; Ryan S. Adams points out that AI has indeed enhanced researchers' capabilities, but the real differentiation lies in agency and vision; _choppingblock implies that there is still significant room for improvement in the current roadmap.
The underlying long-term tension revolves around whether the Ethereum Foundation's preference for an open discussion-based roadmap approach can meet the real-world's higher demands for rapid iteration and implementation.
3. Jane Street Becomes Largest Holder of SLV: Normal Arbitrage or ETF Structural Risk Signal?
Jane Street accumulated a large position in iShares Silver Trust (SLV), becoming its largest holder, raising questions about the ETF Authorized Participant (AP) arbitrage mechanism, and has been linked by some to recent lawsuits, "paper BTC" risks, among other issues.
The controversy lies in determining whether this is a typical quantitative arbitrage behavior or a signal of potential market manipulation or liquidity pressure.
Macrobysunil questions why Jane Street needs to hold such a large position and whether their motivations are worthy of deep exploration; protolambda analogizes Jack Dorsey's layoff remarks to "citrini doom round 2," implying that the paper asset structure may pose a broader systemic risk.
At a deeper level, when commodity ETFs decouple from the cryptocurrency spot and derivatives markets, will the ETF AP mechanism amplify systemic fragility.
4. Anthropic CEO Rejects US Department of Defense Request: Political Red Line for AI Companies?
Anthropic CEO officially refused to comply with the US Department of Defense (referred to as the "Department of War" in some discussions) request. The "Reject" option on Polymarket saw odds swing dramatically to around 44%.
At the heart of the market discussion is whether AI companies should provide unrestricted models for defense or surveillance systems, and whether this rejection will become a defining event in the 2026 AI politicization process.
Some members of the Polymarket community believe that the 44% odds reflect a genuine split in the market over the "ethical red line"; garrytan suggests that in an environment where AI is highly politicized, users holding Meta-prompting skills may become a form of self-protection.
The event reflects the ethical and commercial tension between cutting-edge model development and national security interests.
5. AI Capex Cycle: Depleting Global Liquidity or Growing Pains of a New Phase?
@plur_daddy posted "There's Not Enough Money In The World—AI capex cycle causing market regime change" (1.7M views), which was retweeted by KOLs like Ansem, drawing a direct comparison to Elon and Dorsey's layoffs.
The central controversy is whether the AI infrastructure investments in the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars are causing a "dual squeeze" of global liquidity contraction and employment impact, or is it an inevitable structural realignment in a growth phase?
plur_daddy believes that AI capex is creating a new market regime of "not enough money"; eliant_capital and Ansem point out that just as no one questioned Elon's layoffs back then, Dorsey's layoffs today may similarly be a continuation of capital concentration and organizational restructuring.
The more fundamental question is whether the extremely capital-intensive AI growth path has already caused a structural mismatch with the liquidity supply capacity of the existing global financial system.
II. Ecosystem Development
1. Ethereum
DoubleZero Enters Ethereum: Solana Infrastructure Company's Cross-Chain Deployment
DoubleZero, co-founded by Solana's former CMO Austin Federa, announced that it will be migrating its servers to the Ethereum ecosystem with the goal of "Making Solana Faster." CoinDesk reported its participation in the global speed race. This move quickly gained endorsement from key Solana members and was simultaneously reshared by several ETH and Solana KOLs, widely seen as a positive signal of infrastructure integration and collaboration between the two ecosystems. In a deeper sense, the cross-ecosystem deployment by a multi-chain era professional infrastructure service provider may become the new norm. However, the uncertainty remains regarding whether Solana's speed improvements will be long-term dependent on external migration capabilities, with variables and path dependency.
L2BEAT Launches Interop Tracking Tool
L2BEAT has officially released an Interop tracker designed to real-time track the cross-chain technology stack and interoperability progress of various Ethereum L2s. This tool quickly gained widespread resharing within the ETH community, interpreted as a significant milestone in L2 ecosystem transparency and standardization processes. In the long run, this tool is expected to drive interoperability unification and technical convergence among Ethereum L2s; however, in practical implementation, the real acceleration of integration within a fragmented technology stack still faces uncertainty in terms of time and governance.
2. Solana
Jupiter Faces Breaking Change Incident
Jupiter's core operational member, SIONG, tweeted in the early morning, documenting an event where a protocol pushed a breaking change update without prior notice, leading the team to work through the night. Projects like Backpack and Armani refrained from direct comments but collectively retweeted, amplifying the incident signal. Subsequently, a widespread discussion within the Solana ecosystem emerged regarding the lack of coordination and communication mechanisms between protocols. This incident exposed the governance fragmentation risk in a high-frequency iterative ecosystem, which may eventually force Solana to establish a more mature cross-protocol notification standard. However, in the short term, the trust cost within the ecosystem has notably increased.
Reserve Protocol Increases Security Bounty to $250,000
Ted Livingston has announced an increase in the security bounty for the Reserve contract to $250,000, emphasizing the goal of "ensuring that the contract is as secure as possible." This move is seen within the Solana DeFi project space as a proactive commitment to security development, setting a higher standard for security investment. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of increasingly sophisticated attack vectors, there remains a practical uncertainty about whether $250,000 is sufficient to cover the cost of potential future attack surfaces and incentive demands.
DFlow and Phantom Launch Solana-Specific Claude Skills
DFlow, in collaboration with Phantom, has released the Claude AI skill pack designed specifically for Solana app development, quickly attracting high developer interest. This is interpreted as a significant event marking the formal entry of AI tools into the Solana development process. This move is expected to significantly lower the barrier to Solana dApp development, accelerate innovation and application iteration. However, the stability of the AI skill pack in a live production environment and its ability to consistently translate into real productivity remain to be further validated.
Base Launches x402 Protocol
Base Growth Lead minseok.base.eth has announced the official launch of the x402 protocol on the Base mainnet. Internally, the ecosystem widely regards this as a significant infrastructure-level upgrade, with a key focus on its empowering potential in on-chain payments, API calls, and other scenarios. This protocol may become the starting point for a Coinbase-linked on-chain standardization protocol, but its actual adoption rate, ecosystem compatibility, and developer acceptance will still require observation over time.
3.Perp DEX
Lighter Introduces LIT Fee Credits Program
Lighter has officially launched the LIT Fee Credits mechanism, allowing small liquidity providers and high-frequency traders to use LIT tokens to redeem fee discounts and enjoy matching delay advantages. The Perp DEX community broadly believes that this move reduces the barrier to entry for small and medium participants and helps diversify liquidity. If the mechanism operates smoothly, it may reshape the market maker ecosystem of perpetual contract DEXs. However, there is still uncertainty about the long-term sustainability and fairness of the tokenomics model.
The Chopping Block Focuses on AI × Crypto and the OpenClaw Security Incident
This week, The Chopping Block podcast invited @ilblackdragon to discuss the integration of AI and crypto narratives and the serious security incident of OpenClaw. The episode was widely circulated in the cross-track KOL community, with a core focus on the coexistence of opportunities and risks in the AI-Crypto intersection. The discussion highlighted that the 2026 AI-Crypto narrative has transitioned from the conceptual stage to the realm of real risk-taking, but frequent security events also serve as a reminder to the market that this track is still in its early fragile stage.
Hyperliquid Releases HIP-6 Governance Proposal
The Hyperliquid community officially released the HIP-6 governance proposal, sparking extensive attention from the Perp DEX governance circle. The discussion primarily focused on the direction of protocol parameters and incentive mechanisms adjustments. This proposal may represent an important step for Hyperliquid towards a more mature DAO governance structure, but the ultimate impact of the proposal and the strength of community consensus still leave room for negotiation.
4. Others
Kalshi Instantly Releases Musk's "hold on" TSLA News
Kalshi posted Elon Musk's call to hold TSLA in a "JUST IN" format, garnering 140,000 views in a single post and simultaneously disclosing a reporting channel. The prediction market is transitioning from a mere betting tool to real-time news dissemination and validation. This move signifies that the prediction market is becoming one of the mainstream information discovery channels, but long-term challenges related to regulatory compliance and information authenticity control are also emerging.
Polymarket Experiences Violent Fluctuations in Multi-Event Odds
In the past 24 hours, Polymarket has been tracking significant events such as the "FAA closing the Texas airspace" and "Anthropic refusing a request from the Department of Defense," causing real-time fluctuations in related odds. The crypto and AI communities generally view this as evidence of the prediction market strengthening as a geopolitical and AI political news discovery engine. The prediction market is rapidly evolving into a parallel news validation layer, but the risks of event manipulation and structural vulnerabilities in authenticity have yet to be thoroughly addressed at a mechanistic level.
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Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026? Why Is It Stuck at $1.45
XRP is up 6.7% this week, but exchange reserves remain high. Is a volatility spike imminent? We analyze price trend, ETF inflows, whale activity, and regulatory catalysts to answer: will XRP go up, why is XRP dropping, and is XRP a good investment right now?
TL; DR
What is XRP: XRP is a digital asset built for fast, low-cost international payments. It runs on the XRP Ledger and is used by Ripple for its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP settles transactions in 3-5 seconds with near-zero fees.Why is XRP Dropping: XRP is not actively dropping, but it is struggling to rise. On the monthly chart, XRP has seen six consecutive months of decline. Currently, the price faces an additional supply wall at $1.45. About 1.24 billion XRP were bought in that range, and those holders sell when the price approaches, creating selling pressure that prevents a recovery.Will XRP Go Up: Potentially yes. XRP is trading near $1.43 and showing its best weekly performance since September 2025. If the price breaks above the $1.45 resistance, analysts expect a move toward $1.90, supported by strong institutional demand.Is XRP a Good Investment: The answer is not simple. Short-term traders may see opportunity in the coming volatility spike. Long-term investors face a bigger question that depends on one key regulatory event. However, the data reveals a surprising signal that most retail buyers are missing right now. To understand whether XRP is a smart buy or a trap at $1.43, you will need to read the full analysis below.What is XRP? A Digital Asset for Global SettlementBefore analyzing the charts, it is crucial to understand the asset in question. What is XRP? Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed as a decentralized digital gold, XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). It was created to facilitate fast, low-cost international payments. Traditional bank transfers take days and incur high fees. XRP transactions settle in 3-5 seconds, costing fractions of a penny.
Ripple, the company associated with XRP, uses this asset for its "On-Demand Liquidity" (ODL) service. Banks and financial institutions use ODL to source liquidity during cross-border transactions without pre-funding accounts. This utility is the primary driver for institutional interest. Recently, the network hit a milestone of over 8 million active wallets, signaling growing usage despite recent price stagnation . Furthermore, Ripple is proactively preparing for the future, releasing a four-stage roadmap to make the XRPL "quantum-resistant," aiming to secure the ledger against future quantum computing threats by 2028 .
XRP Price Analysis: The Battle for $1.45The XRP price trend over the last month tells a story of exhaustion followed by cautious recovery. On the monthly chart, XRP experienced six consecutive months of decline. However, April shows signs of a bottoming process. Weekly charts reinforce this view: after four weeks of lower closes, the last two weeks have seen small rebounds.
According to data from April 22, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.44. Over the last seven days, XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, rising 6.7% while the broader market rose only 3.2%. Spot trading volume surged 23% to $3.79 billion, and derivative markets saw $40 billion in futures volume on a single day.
Despite this, the price remains 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The current technical picture shows a "low volatility grind" higher. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3924, and the 50-day EMA is at $1.4119, both acting as support . However, the immediate hurdle is the $1.45 resistance level. This price point has rejected every rally attempt in 2026.
Why is XRP Dropping? And Will XRP Go Up?The primary reason for the recent "drop" (or lack of upward momentum) is not active selling, but rather the "supply wall." Data indicates that roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens were purchased by investors in the $1.45 to $1.47 range. These investors have been waiting months to "break even." Every time the price approaches $1.45, these holders sell to exit their positions, creating a massive wall that retail buying cannot easily absorb.
However, the underlying momentum is shifting. Analysts suggest a xrp volatility spike imminent because the absorption capacity of buyers is increasing. Historically, when exchange reserves are high but the price refuses to drop significantly, it signals that buyers are absorbing the supply. The price has held above $1.39 despite the overhang, which is a sign of relative strength.
So, will XRP go up? Yes, potentially. But it needs a catalyst, if the price closes a daily candle above $1.45. If that happens, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.65, and eventually $1.90 .
XRP Exchange Netflow and XRP ETF Netflow: A Tale of Two MarketsThe current market dynamic is best understood by looking at two opposing data streams: XRP Exchange netflow and XRP ETF flows.
Exchange Dynamics (Retail / Whales):
Data shows a complex pattern of "large inflows and increasing reserves." Recently, a Ripple-associated wallet moved 75 million XRP (approx. $108 million) to Coinbase. This initially looks like a dump, but context matters. These transfers are likely to provide liquidity for Ripple’s ODL business, not necessarily spot market selling. However, the result is that exchange reserves have climbed to 2.76 billion XRP .
The Good News: While reserves are high, the rate of increase is slowing. Specifically, "whale" transfers to exchanges have dropped 98% from their April 11 peak. The Binance reserve has slightly decreased from 27.7 to 27.6 billion. The aggressive selling from large holders appears to have stopped.
Institutional Dynamics (ETF):
While whales were sending coins to exchanges, institutions were buying XRP ETF products. XRP ETF net flow is strongly positive.
US-listed XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows totaling $38.86 million recently .The weekly inflow for mid-April hit $119.6 million, a multi-month high .Cumulative net inflows stand at $12.8 billion, with Assets Under Management (AUM) at roughly $10.8 billion.Analyzing the Divergence: Why Both Flows Are PositiveIt seems contradictory that exchange reserves are high (suggesting selling) while ETFs are buying (suggesting buying). However, this phenomenon reveals the current market structure.
Different Investor Profiles: The exchange inflows likely come from short-term traders, market makers, or Ripple itself providing ODL liquidity. These are "hot" coins ready to be sold. The ETF inflows represent "sticky" capital. Institutions buying ETFs are typically long-term holders (LTHs) or asset managers who do not day-trade. They are removing liquidity from the spot market by buying through custodians.The "De-risking" Trade: Sophisticated funds might be engaging in basis trading. They buy the ETF (taking a long position) while simultaneously shorting XRP futures or selling spot inventory to capture the funding rate. This keeps the price stable while volume increases.Absorption: The most likely scenario is that the market is simply absorbing the excess supply. The fact that the price is stable ($1.43) and not collapsing to $1.20 despite 2.76 billion coins sitting on exchanges is a massive win for the bulls. The ETF inflows are acting as a sponge, soaking up the selling pressure from the ODL wallets.The Regulatory Catalyst: The SEC and the CLARITY ActFundamentally, the recent price action cannot be separated from regulation. For years, the primary answer was the SEC lawsuit. That narrative is dying.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently praised SEC Chair Paul Atkins as "a breath of fresh air and sanity" . This regulatory thaw is critical. The SEC is reportedly considering dropping the long-standing lawsuit, and five XRP ETF applications are awaiting review.
The major catalyst on the horizon is the CLARITY Act. A Senate markup is expected before the end of April. Standard Chartered analysts project that if the bill advances, it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in institutional flows . Polymarket gives the bill a 60-66% chance of passing in 2026. If the CLARITY Act classifies XRP as a non-security (commodity), the institutional floodgates will open, likely overwhelming the $1.45 supply wall instantly.
Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026?Given all this data, is XRP a good investment? The answer depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon.
The Bull Case (Why it is a good investment): The risk/reward ratio is asymmetrical to the upside. The price is near multi-year lows relative to its utility. Whale selling has stopped, ETF demand is rising, and the network is expanding (8 million wallets, quantum resistance roadmap). If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP could realistically trade between $1.60 and $1.80 in the short term, with a potential run to $3.00+ if the lawsuit is officially dropped.The Risk Case (Why it is NOT a good investment): There is a clear resistance wall at $1.45. If the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed past May (due to midterm election dynamics), the "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could reverse. If the price fails to break $1.45 and loses support at $1.33, a drop back to $1.15 is technically possible .Verdict: XRP is a speculative buy for traders looking for a volatility spike. It is a hold for current investors. For new investors, it is only a good investment if you believe in regulatory clarity within the next 30 days. Technically, waiting for a confirmed break above $1.55 (to avoid the fakeout) is safer than buying at $1.43.
FAQQ: Will XRP go up if the CLARITY Act passes?
A: Yes, historically. Analysts predict that if the CLARITY Act passes, signaling that XRP is a commodity, it would remove the regulatory overhang. This could trigger a surge in institutional buying, pushing the price from the current $1.43 range to test the $1.80 - $2.00 resistance levels quickly.
Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is going up?
A: XRP has specific supply dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply issuance, XRP faces periodic sell-pressure from Ripple's treasury wallets used to fund ODL (liquidity) services. Additionally, the $1.45 "break-even" wall causes XRP to drop relative to BTC when short-term traders exit.
Q: Is a volatility spike imminent for XRP?
A: Yes. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing. The price is stuck between support at $1.33 and resistance at $1.45. Historically, when XRP volume surges 23% in a week (as it did on April 21), it precedes a violent move. The direction depends on whether the $1.45 resistance breaks.
Q: What is the XRP ETF netflow status?
A: As of late April 2026, XRP ETFs are seeing positive netflows. The US ETFs recorded a single week inflow of $119.6 million in mid-April. Cumulative inflows are strong at $12.8 billion, indicating that institutions are accumulating during this dip, which is a long-term bullish signal for price stabilization.
Q: Is XRP a good investment for beginners?
A: XRP is less volatile than "meme coins" but more volatile than Bitcoin. For beginners, it is a moderate-risk investment. Its value is tied to real utility (bank payments). However, beginners should wait to see if the price can close a weekly candle above $1.55 before entering, to avoid buying into the current resistance wall.
Disclaimer: None of the information in this article constitutes, or is intended to constitute, investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research.
About WEEXFounded in 2018, WEEX has developed into a global crypto exchange with over 6.2 million users across more than 150 countries. The platform emphasizes security, liquidity, and usability, providing over 1,200 spot trading pairs and offering up to 400x leverage in crypto futures trading. In addition to the traditional spot and derivatives markets, WEEX is expanding rapidly in the AI era — delivering real-time AI news, empowering users with AI trading tools, and exploring innovative trade-to-earn models that make intelligent trading more accessible to everyone. Its 1,000 BTC Protection Fund further strengthens asset safety and transparency, while features such as copy trading and advanced trading tools allow users to follow professional traders and experience a more efficient, intelligent trading journey.
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Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026? Why Is It Stuck at $1.45
XRP is up 6.7% this week, but exchange reserves remain high. Is a volatility spike imminent? We analyze price trend, ETF inflows, whale activity, and regulatory catalysts to answer: will XRP go up, why is XRP dropping, and is XRP a good investment right now?
TL; DR
What is XRP: XRP is a digital asset built for fast, low-cost international payments. It runs on the XRP Ledger and is used by Ripple for its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP settles transactions in 3-5 seconds with near-zero fees.Why is XRP Dropping: XRP is not actively dropping, but it is struggling to rise. On the monthly chart, XRP has seen six consecutive months of decline. Currently, the price faces an additional supply wall at $1.45. About 1.24 billion XRP were bought in that range, and those holders sell when the price approaches, creating selling pressure that prevents a recovery.Will XRP Go Up: Potentially yes. XRP is trading near $1.43 and showing its best weekly performance since September 2025. If the price breaks above the $1.45 resistance, analysts expect a move toward $1.90, supported by strong institutional demand.Is XRP a Good Investment: The answer is not simple. Short-term traders may see opportunity in the coming volatility spike. Long-term investors face a bigger question that depends on one key regulatory event. However, the data reveals a surprising signal that most retail buyers are missing right now. To understand whether XRP is a smart buy or a trap at $1.43, you will need to read the full analysis below.What is XRP? A Digital Asset for Global SettlementBefore analyzing the charts, it is crucial to understand the asset in question. What is XRP? Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed as a decentralized digital gold, XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). It was created to facilitate fast, low-cost international payments. Traditional bank transfers take days and incur high fees. XRP transactions settle in 3-5 seconds, costing fractions of a penny.
Ripple, the company associated with XRP, uses this asset for its "On-Demand Liquidity" (ODL) service. Banks and financial institutions use ODL to source liquidity during cross-border transactions without pre-funding accounts. This utility is the primary driver for institutional interest. Recently, the network hit a milestone of over 8 million active wallets, signaling growing usage despite recent price stagnation . Furthermore, Ripple is proactively preparing for the future, releasing a four-stage roadmap to make the XRPL "quantum-resistant," aiming to secure the ledger against future quantum computing threats by 2028 .
XRP Price Analysis: The Battle for $1.45The XRP price trend over the last month tells a story of exhaustion followed by cautious recovery. On the monthly chart, XRP experienced six consecutive months of decline. However, April shows signs of a bottoming process. Weekly charts reinforce this view: after four weeks of lower closes, the last two weeks have seen small rebounds.
According to data from April 22, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.44. Over the last seven days, XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, rising 6.7% while the broader market rose only 3.2%. Spot trading volume surged 23% to $3.79 billion, and derivative markets saw $40 billion in futures volume on a single day.
Despite this, the price remains 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The current technical picture shows a "low volatility grind" higher. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3924, and the 50-day EMA is at $1.4119, both acting as support . However, the immediate hurdle is the $1.45 resistance level. This price point has rejected every rally attempt in 2026.
Why is XRP Dropping? And Will XRP Go Up?The primary reason for the recent "drop" (or lack of upward momentum) is not active selling, but rather the "supply wall." Data indicates that roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens were purchased by investors in the $1.45 to $1.47 range. These investors have been waiting months to "break even." Every time the price approaches $1.45, these holders sell to exit their positions, creating a massive wall that retail buying cannot easily absorb.
However, the underlying momentum is shifting. Analysts suggest a xrp volatility spike imminent because the absorption capacity of buyers is increasing. Historically, when exchange reserves are high but the price refuses to drop significantly, it signals that buyers are absorbing the supply. The price has held above $1.39 despite the overhang, which is a sign of relative strength.
So, will XRP go up? Yes, potentially. But it needs a catalyst, if the price closes a daily candle above $1.45. If that happens, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.65, and eventually $1.90 .
XRP Exchange Netflow and XRP ETF Netflow: A Tale of Two MarketsThe current market dynamic is best understood by looking at two opposing data streams: XRP Exchange netflow and XRP ETF flows.
Exchange Dynamics (Retail / Whales):
Data shows a complex pattern of "large inflows and increasing reserves." Recently, a Ripple-associated wallet moved 75 million XRP (approx. $108 million) to Coinbase. This initially looks like a dump, but context matters. These transfers are likely to provide liquidity for Ripple’s ODL business, not necessarily spot market selling. However, the result is that exchange reserves have climbed to 2.76 billion XRP .
The Good News: While reserves are high, the rate of increase is slowing. Specifically, "whale" transfers to exchanges have dropped 98% from their April 11 peak. The Binance reserve has slightly decreased from 27.7 to 27.6 billion. The aggressive selling from large holders appears to have stopped.
Institutional Dynamics (ETF):
While whales were sending coins to exchanges, institutions were buying XRP ETF products. XRP ETF net flow is strongly positive.
US-listed XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows totaling $38.86 million recently .The weekly inflow for mid-April hit $119.6 million, a multi-month high .Cumulative net inflows stand at $12.8 billion, with Assets Under Management (AUM) at roughly $10.8 billion.Analyzing the Divergence: Why Both Flows Are PositiveIt seems contradictory that exchange reserves are high (suggesting selling) while ETFs are buying (suggesting buying). However, this phenomenon reveals the current market structure.
Different Investor Profiles: The exchange inflows likely come from short-term traders, market makers, or Ripple itself providing ODL liquidity. These are "hot" coins ready to be sold. The ETF inflows represent "sticky" capital. Institutions buying ETFs are typically long-term holders (LTHs) or asset managers who do not day-trade. They are removing liquidity from the spot market by buying through custodians.The "De-risking" Trade: Sophisticated funds might be engaging in basis trading. They buy the ETF (taking a long position) while simultaneously shorting XRP futures or selling spot inventory to capture the funding rate. This keeps the price stable while volume increases.Absorption: The most likely scenario is that the market is simply absorbing the excess supply. The fact that the price is stable ($1.43) and not collapsing to $1.20 despite 2.76 billion coins sitting on exchanges is a massive win for the bulls. The ETF inflows are acting as a sponge, soaking up the selling pressure from the ODL wallets.The Regulatory Catalyst: The SEC and the CLARITY ActFundamentally, the recent price action cannot be separated from regulation. For years, the primary answer was the SEC lawsuit. That narrative is dying.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently praised SEC Chair Paul Atkins as "a breath of fresh air and sanity" . This regulatory thaw is critical. The SEC is reportedly considering dropping the long-standing lawsuit, and five XRP ETF applications are awaiting review.
The major catalyst on the horizon is the CLARITY Act. A Senate markup is expected before the end of April. Standard Chartered analysts project that if the bill advances, it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in institutional flows . Polymarket gives the bill a 60-66% chance of passing in 2026. If the CLARITY Act classifies XRP as a non-security (commodity), the institutional floodgates will open, likely overwhelming the $1.45 supply wall instantly.
Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026?Given all this data, is XRP a good investment? The answer depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon.
The Bull Case (Why it is a good investment): The risk/reward ratio is asymmetrical to the upside. The price is near multi-year lows relative to its utility. Whale selling has stopped, ETF demand is rising, and the network is expanding (8 million wallets, quantum resistance roadmap). If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP could realistically trade between $1.60 and $1.80 in the short term, with a potential run to $3.00+ if the lawsuit is officially dropped.The Risk Case (Why it is NOT a good investment): There is a clear resistance wall at $1.45. If the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed past May (due to midterm election dynamics), the "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could reverse. If the price fails to break $1.45 and loses support at $1.33, a drop back to $1.15 is technically possible .Verdict: XRP is a speculative buy for traders looking for a volatility spike. It is a hold for current investors. For new investors, it is only a good investment if you believe in regulatory clarity within the next 30 days. Technically, waiting for a confirmed break above $1.55 (to avoid the fakeout) is safer than buying at $1.43.
FAQQ: Will XRP go up if the CLARITY Act passes?
A: Yes, historically. Analysts predict that if the CLARITY Act passes, signaling that XRP is a commodity, it would remove the regulatory overhang. This could trigger a surge in institutional buying, pushing the price from the current $1.43 range to test the $1.80 - $2.00 resistance levels quickly.
Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is going up?
A: XRP has specific supply dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply issuance, XRP faces periodic sell-pressure from Ripple's treasury wallets used to fund ODL (liquidity) services. Additionally, the $1.45 "break-even" wall causes XRP to drop relative to BTC when short-term traders exit.
Q: Is a volatility spike imminent for XRP?
A: Yes. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing. The price is stuck between support at $1.33 and resistance at $1.45. Historically, when XRP volume surges 23% in a week (as it did on April 21), it precedes a violent move. The direction depends on whether the $1.45 resistance breaks.
Q: What is the XRP ETF netflow status?
A: As of late April 2026, XRP ETFs are seeing positive netflows. The US ETFs recorded a single week inflow of $119.6 million in mid-April. Cumulative inflows are strong at $12.8 billion, indicating that institutions are accumulating during this dip, which is a long-term bullish signal for price stabilization.
Q: Is XRP a good investment for beginners?
A: XRP is less volatile than "meme coins" but more volatile than Bitcoin. For beginners, it is a moderate-risk investment. Its value is tied to real utility (bank payments). However, beginners should wait to see if the price can close a weekly candle above $1.55 before entering, to avoid buying into the current resistance wall.
Disclaimer: None of the information in this article constitutes, or is intended to constitute, investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research.
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