Bitcoin Halving Cycle Unlikely to Pressure Prices in Late 2025, Standard Chartered Predicts

As of today, August 7, 2025, the cryptocurrency market continues to buzz with discussions around Bitcoin’s future trajectory. With Bitcoin currently trading around $95,000 amid fluctuating global economic signals, experts are weighing in on how traditional patterns like the halving cycle might play out differently this time. A recent forecast from global banking giant Standard Chartered suggests that the usual post-halving price dips seen in past cycles may not materialize in the latter half of 2025, thanks to robust support from institutional investors and innovative financial products.

Standard Chartered’s Bullish Outlook on Bitcoin Prices Through 2025

Imagine Bitcoin as a resilient athlete who’s trained harder than ever for the big race – that’s the vibe from Standard Chartered’s latest insights. The bank’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, shared an optimistic report today, emphasizing that Bitcoin could reach fresh all-time highs of $135,000 by the close of the third quarter this year. Looking further ahead, he anticipates the cryptocurrency surging past $200,000 before the year wraps up. This confidence stems from a shift in market dynamics, where investor enthusiasm has effectively neutralized the historical downsides tied to halving events.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin prices often experienced a notable pullback about 18 months after a halving, which would point to potential weakness around September or October next year. But Kendrick argues this pattern is outdated. “Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle,” he explained in the report. Instead, the focus is on positive forces like escalating corporate treasury involvement and sustained inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which weren’t major players in earlier eras.

Why the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Might Be a Thing of the Past

To put it in perspective, think of the Bitcoin halving like a scheduled pay cut for miners – every four years, the reward for mining new blocks gets slashed in half, historically leading to supply squeezes that boost prices initially, followed by corrections. The halvings in 2016 and 2020 followed this script, with prices dipping significantly after the initial euphoria. Fast-forward to the April 2024 halving, and things look different. Kendrick points out that new elements, such as powerful ETF inflows and companies stockpiling Bitcoin on their balance sheets, are acting as a buffer against those old downturns.

This isn’t just speculation; it’s backed by real data. In the second quarter of 2025 alone, Bitcoin ETF flows combined with corporate treasury purchases amounted to 245,000 BTC. Kendrick expects this figure to climb even higher in the third and fourth quarters, providing a steady upward push. Even if there’s some market choppiness in late Q3 or early Q4 due to lingering fears of historical patterns repeating, the overall trend should remain upward. Standard Chartered’s longer-term vision is even more ambitious, projecting Bitcoin could climb to $500,000 by 2028, driven by these evolving market supports.

Recent Market Movements and ETF Dynamics

Speaking of ETFs, the landscape has been dynamic lately. After a impressive 15-day streak of inflows totaling $4.8 billion, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $342.3 million on a recent Tuesday, representing about 7% of that positive run. Despite this hiccup, the broader picture remains encouraging. Compare this to last year’s first half, where crypto exchange-traded product inflows dropped 2.7% from $18.3 billion – a sign that while volatility persists, institutional interest is holding strong.

On the social front, Twitter has been abuzz with debates about Bitcoin’s resilience post-halving. Recent posts from influential crypto analysts highlight how corporate adoptions, like those from major firms treating Bitcoin as a treasury asset, are reshaping narratives. Google searches are spiking for queries like “Will Bitcoin crash after halving 2025?” and “Best Bitcoin ETFs to buy now,” reflecting widespread curiosity. The most discussed topics include potential regulatory shifts and how events like the upcoming U.S. elections might amplify ETF buying. Just yesterday, a prominent Twitter thread from a market watcher noted official announcements from ETF providers about record quarterly inflows, underscoring the momentum.

Aligning Brands with Crypto’s Future: The Role of Reliable Exchanges

In this evolving ecosystem, brand alignment plays a crucial role in building trust and accessibility for everyday investors. Platforms that prioritize security, user-friendly interfaces, and seamless trading experiences are becoming essential. Take WEEX exchange, for instance – it’s gaining traction as a go-to spot for crypto enthusiasts, offering low fees, advanced tools, and a commitment to regulatory compliance that enhances its credibility. By focusing on innovative features like spot and futures trading with robust risk management, WEEX aligns perfectly with the growing demand for reliable avenues to engage with assets like Bitcoin, making it easier for newcomers and seasoned traders alike to navigate the market’s ups and downs without unnecessary hurdles.

Broader Implications for Bitcoin Adoption and Predictions

This shift away from halving-induced slumps highlights Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class. No longer just a speculative play, it’s drawing in corporations and funds that see it as a hedge against inflation, much like gold but with digital efficiency. Kendrick’s analysis reinforces that with these new drivers, Bitcoin’s path could be smoother, potentially printing those $135,000 highs soon and pushing toward $200,000 by year’s end. Of course, markets can be unpredictable, but the evidence – from ETF data to corporate buys – paints a compelling picture of sustained growth.

As we track these developments, it’s clear that Bitcoin’s story is one of adaptation and strength, evolving beyond old cycles into a more stable force in the financial world.

FAQ

What makes the 2025 Bitcoin halving cycle different from previous ones?
Unlike past cycles where prices often dropped 18 months post-halving due to supply dynamics, the current one benefits from strong ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying, which provide significant support and could prevent major declines.

How are Bitcoin ETFs influencing price predictions for 2025?
Bitcoin ETFs have driven substantial inflows, with Q2 2025 seeing 245,000 BTC accumulated through these and corporate channels. This institutional demand is expected to push prices higher, potentially to $135,000 by Q3’s end, countering historical halving pressures.

Could external factors like regulations affect Bitcoin prices in late 2025?
Yes, regulatory changes or global events could introduce volatility, but ongoing ETF and corporate interest is forecasted to maintain an upward trend, with experts like those at Standard Chartered predicting resilience against traditional cycle dips.