Arthur Hayes: Infrastructure Bill Could Lead to Temporary USD Liquidity Crunch, Market May Consolidate Until August

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/07/03 14:06:44

BlockBeats News, July 3rd, Arthur Hayes today published an article pointing out that after the passage of Trump's spending bill (called the "Beautiful Bill"), there may be a brief pause in U.S. dollar liquidity creation.

Since January 1st, the Treasury has mainly funded the government by drawing down funds from its checking account—the Treasury General Account (TGA). As of June 25th, the TGA balance was $364 billion. According to guidance from the Treasury in its latest quarterly refunding announcement, if the debt ceiling is raised today, the TGA balance will be supplemented to $850 billion through issuing bonds. This will result in a $486 billion U.S. dollar liquidity contraction. The only major U.S. dollar liquidity item that could offset the negative impact is funds flowing out of the RRP account (currently at $461 billion).

The bull market may be interrupted in the short term. From now until August when Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting, the market will trade sideways to slightly lower. If the TGA supplementation proves detrimental to U.S. dollar liquidity, then the downside risk is between $90,000 and $95,000. If the supplementation proves to be inconsequential, Bitcoin will hover around $100,000 and not break above the all-time high of $112,000.

"I have a feeling Powell will announce the end of quantitative tightening and/or other seemingly mundane but significant banking regulatory reforms." By early September, the debt ceiling will be raised, the TGA will be effectively replenished, and the Republicans will focus on distributing welfare so they won't suffer Mamdani's blow in their home district in November 2026. By then, the Green Cross Star will pierce through the bears fueled by the surge in currency issuance.

Despite the sharp rally, caution is warranted. The $70,000–$72,000 zone has historically been strong resistance. The ceasefire is only temporary (two weeks), and any breakdown in negotiations could trigger a sell-off toward the $62,000–$65,000 support zone. For now, Bitcoin needs to close decisively above $72,500 to confirm a true breakout; failure to do so within 48–72 hours could lead to a swift retracement.

OpenAI has no "New Deal," a blueprint for AI that refuses to pay.

OpenAI has published a 13-page policy whitepaper, proposing a Robot Tax, Universal AI Wealth Fund, and Four-Day Workweek

Wall Street Flash Mob Run? Mega-Cap Stock Plunge, Goldman's Great Escape, Illustrated Guide to Private Credit Crisis

A 5% Gate Failed to Split Blue Owl and Goldman Sachs into "Good Fund" and "Bad Fund"

OpenAI Feud: Power, Trust, and the Uncontrollable Boundaries of AGI

《The New Yorker》 Retells the OpenAI Power Struggle, Revealing Sam Altman's Governance Rift and Trust Issues

「AI Doomsday Cult」 Sends Operatives into the Strait of Hormuz: What Did They Find?

The reality is much more complex than everyone imagines; the Strait of Hormuz is not in a simple open or closed state.

Everyone is waiting for the war to end, but is the oil price signaling a prolonged conflict?

Oil is no longer just a byproduct of war but is becoming the war itself

Data Analysis: How Wide is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?

Compared to CME, Hyperliquid's high transaction costs remain a key obstacle to its expansion in the commodities trading sector.

After a 40% Reduction in Staff, Twitter's Founder to Give Away $1 Million in Bitcoin

Jack Dorsey's Bitcoin Day, a Landmark Return of the Bitcoin Faucet

Trade.xyz: Pricing the World? On-Chain Markets Are Becoming the Market

When the market begins to move ahead of the news, a shift from trading to pricing is taking place

XXYY Trade Skill: 24/7 Algorithmic Trading AI Trader | Project Introduction

The era of "AI Traders for Everyone" has truly arrived

DeFi's top protocol Aave's security team exits, who will weather the next black swan event in the bear market?

During a bear market, risk management is truly crucial.

Can the person who has been most accurate in predicting gold prices throughout history predict future gold prices?

Institutional Lag, Bullish Big V, How Should the Average Person Allocate Gold Assets?

Quantum Computing Won't Kill Bitcoin, But the Real Risk Is Approaching

The truth is much more interesting than panic, and more deserving of caution than those casual denials.

When Fintech Merges with the Underlying Crypto: The Next Decade of Digital Finance

Ultimately, the companies that can best capture value in digital finance are those that possess large-scale distribution, regulatory trust, and control over infrastructure.

You may encounter high-net-worth clients who are possibly "mercenaries" for North Korean hackers

Drift announced details of the investigation into the $285 million theft, pointing to the North Korean hacker group UNC4736.

Chaos Labs exits, Aave loses its last risk gatekeeper

When risk control exits, the security foundation of DeFi is revalued.

Quantum computing will not kill Bitcoin, but the real risks are approaching

The truth is far more interesting than panic, and it is also more worthy of caution than those dismissive denials.

Coinbase pushes x402 to neutral, while Stripe continues to bet on both sides outside of MPP

The x402 Foundation is not announcing that x402 has already won in all agentic commerce agreements. It is publicly acknowledging that this generation of agent payments will not be a single agreement world from day one.