Analyst Claims Variational's $1.5 Billion FDV Valuation is Overly Optimistic, Conservative Estimate at $167 Million

Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens pointed out that Polymarket's $1.5 billion FDV valuation for Variational is overly optimistic. This valuation directly applies the revenue multiples of Hyperliquid and Lighter to a platform that relies on token subsidies. In contrast, the first-day FDV valuation of the recently launched Perp DEX has a median annualized revenue multiple of 6.3 times, while Variational's current multiple is about 57 times, with a projected median trading volume loss of 54% in the first month after TGE. Shaunda stated that based on conservative assumptions from historical precedents, Variational's reasonable valuation is only $167 million, corresponding to a token price of $4.8 to $5.4. Even when calculated at Lighter's highest multiple of 21.1 times, its valuation would only be about $558 million, corresponding to a token price of $16 to $18. Shaunda also noted that the current market risk appetite is in a Risk-on state, making it unlikely for Variational's valuation at TGE to fall into the aforementioned conservative range, citing historical multiples to illustrate that the current pre-market pricing may be overly optimistic.

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