Analysis: Affected by rising oil prices and the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, risk assets such as Bitcoin are under pressure

According to CoinDesk, btc-42">Bitcoin has fallen back to around $70,000, Ethereum has dropped to $2,160, and the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure. On the macro level, two major negative factors are overlapping. First, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cut cycle, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on risk assets. Second, after Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Gulf, with Brent crude oil rising to $114, Oman crude rising to $150, and European natural gas futures soaring about 25% to above $78 per megawatt-hour.

In terms of derivatives, nearly $600 million in leveraged contract positions were forcibly liquidated on crypto platforms in the past 24 hours, with long positions being the majority, indicating that the overnight drop caught many long holders off guard. The total market's futures open interest decreased by 5.6% to $10.69 billion, with Ethereum futures open interest dropping by 9%. The funding rates for mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL have turned negative, with short-selling demand rising. The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) for Bitcoin has increased by over 5% to 58.36%, ending the previous week's downward trend, while the skew for Bitcoin and Ethereum put options on Deribit has strengthened simultaneously, raising concerns about market downturns.