AI Model Estimates Bitcoin Signature Cracking Probability Up to 76%

On-chain analyst Willy Woo shared estimates indicating that the probability of Bitcoin digital signatures being cracked within the next two years is 1.3%. Researchers used four AI models to assess the probabilities of Bitcoin ECDSA and Schnorr signatures being cracked over the next 2, 5, 10, and 20 years. ChatGPT-6 Astra predicts a cracking probability of about 76% within 20 years, Claude at 66%, Grok at 60%, and Deepseek at 34%. All models agree that quantum computing poses a long-term major threat, with the relevant cracking probability in the next two years estimated to be between 0% and 2%. Currently, there are no practical classical cryptanalysis methods for secp256k1, and the enhancement of AI capabilities has not yet resulted in verified cryptanalysis breakthroughs.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.